One side of the Challenge Cup Championship game is already decided, but what about in the East? There are a handful of realistic scenarios to consider, and one chaos scenario. Let’s see what’s needed for each of the three teams to advance.
Before that, let’s talk about how the West was won. After their first three matches, the Portland Thorns locked up the West Division of the Challenge Cup preseason tournament. Not only did they secure it with three straight wins, but they secured it mostly without their best lineup available.
Last Wednesday, five international stars returned to the lineup, including the likes of US defender Becky Sauerbrunn, midfielders Crystal Dunn and Lindsey Horan, and Canadian forward Christine Sinclair. They lifted the Thorns over rival OL Reign in a dominating 2-0 victory. For their fourth game, they don’t have anything to worry about except staying healthy and preparing for the final on May 8. The east is a different story altogether.
Going into the final group of matches, three teams have a chance to represent the East. Gotham FC, NC Courage, and the Orlando Pride all have an opportunity to face off against the Thorns. Here’s where all three teams stand:
Washington sits just on the outside, earning four points in their four matches. Racing Louisville FC has one point in three matches but can still play spoiler for Gotham FC.
The division winner is decided on the most points (3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw). If Gotham wins on Saturday; they win the division without much drama. There are three tiebreakers if Gotham loses and a slue of other results happen between NC Courage and Orlando:
- Highest Goal Differential
- Most Goals Scored
- Lowest Team Conduct Score (related to yellow and red cards obtained)
- Yellow Card – 1 point
- Indirect red (two yellows to one player in a match) – 3 points
- Direct red – 4 points
- Yellow card and direct red – 5 points
- Drawing of lots by NWSL
Nothing is impossible, but it could go down to the drawing of lots. More on that later.
Here is how that drama could unfold, looking at the results of the two final matches that matter for cup championship placement.
NC Courage v. Orlando Pride – May 1, 7:30 p.m. ET
Saturday night’s matchup is arguably the most important contest of the tournament, so far. The Courage doesn’t have a strong case in goal differential. Their defense hasn’t looked the same since losing defender Abby Dahlkemper and midfielder Sam Mewis to Manchester City in 2020. They’ve allowed at least two goals in every Challenge Cup match, which is an exciting prospect for Orlando.
Orlando’s attack is dangerous. Although they lost without a goal scored to Gotham on April 14, it wasn’t because of a lack of trying. Forward Sydney Leroux had seven total shots that match, and four on target. If not for the play of Gotham goalkeeper DiDi Haracic, the table looks much different. Around her is US forward Alex Morgan, who had an assist in her one match of the cup, and legendary Brazilian attacking midfielder Marta. If there’s a team that can score goals on a weakened defense, it’s Orlando.
For all the goals NC has given up, Orlando hasn’t given up much less in terms of shots on goal. Orlando’s Ashlyn Harris kept Orlando in their three matches, stopping 11 shots on 14 attempts. Eight of those stops alone came against Washington on April 21.
North Carolina’s offensive attack isn’t any slouch either. The back-to-back NWSL Champions tout attackers like Jess McDonald, who has three assists and two goals in 2021, US International Lynn Williams, who hasn’t gotten into the box score yet offensively, and Debinha, who leads the tournament with three goals. That’s just three of a team full of former champions.
NJ/NY Gotham FC v. Racing Louisville FC – May 2, 12:30 p.m. ET
To stress this again, the whole thing is settled if Gotham beats Racing Louisville FC. Louisville hasn’t won a match yet this season and lost five total points in the standings on goals given up in the last 10 minutes, plus stoppage time. Each match had a late goal too, meaning that Racing is not an easy victory by any means. A stronger defensive performance at the end of the match could see Gotham handed its first defeat of the tournament.
Gotham saw an influx in goal scoring with the addition of Midge Purce and Carli Lloyd from US international camp in April. They tacked on three against the NC Courage last week. Even in their Tuesday 0-0 draw against the Washington Spirit, they looked dangerous on the attack. Forward Paige Monaghan found her way past the Washington Spirit defense on multiple occasions and faces a younger back line in Louisville.
Louisville has overcome deficits twice in their three matches, although against the Courage they gave up a late winner after equalizing. They aren’t going to let up on Gotham with CeCe Kizer, Savannah McCaskill, and Yuki Nagasato in the offensive half of the field.
East Division Scenarios:
Below are different, most practical, scenarios for the results of the two matches.
Gotham Win: Gotham advances
NC Courage Win & Gotham Loss or Draw: NC Courage advances
Orlando Win & Gotham Draw: Gotham advances
Orlando Win & Gotham Loss & GD doesn’t shift by 2 goals: Gotham advances
Orlando Win & Gotham Loss & GD shifts by at least 2: Orlando advances
NC & ORL Draw & Gotham Loss: NC Courage advances on goals scored (on GD if Gotham loses by 2 goals or more)
Chaos Scenario
Above are the most likely scenarios to happen, but what about the least likely result, that would cause the most chaos?
If Gotham loses 0-1, and Orlando wins 2-1, it goes to goals scored. They’d be tied at five apiece. From there it goes to conduct score. Here’s how they currently stand in that department:
NJ/NY Gotham FC: 3 points
NC Courage: 3 points
Orlando Pride: 4 points
In the match against Racing Louisville; if Gotham gets one yellow card on the 0-1 score line, it goes to the final tiebreaker: the drawing of lots. In layman’s terms, a random drawing. So, if that happens and Orlando wins the draw; they would go onto the Challenge Cup Championship against Portland. That’s even with them losing to Gotham earlier in the tournament.
The chances of that happening are slim, and even more slim if you consider the offensive firepower on all four teams. Even if the chaos scenario doesn’t happen, the tournament has been entertaining enough on the field.
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