After a historically bad 0-12 start, recurring injuries, habitual late-game collapses, and pleas to “tank for Paige”, the Washington Mystics are encroaching on the finale of a season to be forgotten. And somehow, someway, they might find themselves in the postseason.
That’s not a sentence I saw myself writing three weeks ago.
Washington entered the late-July Olympic Break at a league-worst 6-19. They debuted out of the break with three straight losses. The season’s end goal seemed to be a place in the 2025 draft lottery. Since their loss to Seattle on August 20th, the Mystics have gone 5-2.
Washington has blindly wandered into a dead sprint with Atlanta and Chicago for the final seat in the postseason. The Dallas Wings and Los Angeles Sparks have both been mathematically eliminated. The Sky leads the pack now with 13 wins, followed by the Dream with 12, and the Mystics with 11. All three teams have five games remaining.
Chicago’s two-game cushion may seem daunting given the scarcity of games left, but each team controls its own destiny. Washington and Chicago play this Wednesday, September 11th. Washington and Atlanta will meet for a doubleheader over the weekend. Atlanta and Chicago face off next week. Nothing will be left to chance.
What’s working in D.C.?
As unimaginative as it may sound, the secret ingredient brewing Washington’s newfound success has been health. When Jumbotrons advertised an empty injury report before their September 8th matchup with the Lynx, Entertainment & Sports Arena was flooded with comically genuine applause. Injuries to Shakira Austin, Brittney Sykes, and Karlie Samuelson have muddied the Mystics season since May.
Although Austin has fluctuated in and out of the lineup, Washington’s core is starting to gel together. Trade deadline moves shifted the teams’ hierarchy, solidifying fan-favorite rookie Aaliyah Edwards as a starter in the absence of Austin. Myisha Hines-Allen‘s departure also vacated minutes for Emily Engstler, who continues to make the most of every opportunity. Engstler recorded a 19-point double-double against the Wings on September 3rd, following up with a 10-point, five “stock” (steals and blocks) encore in Washington’s routing of the Mercury.
The return of Sykes can’t be understated either. Adding a four-time All-Defense selection, not to mention her 12/3/3 offensive averages, will skyrocket any team’s chances to win games.
The Mystics may not win a championship this year, but they’re demanding league-wide attention. They have talent, they have youth, and their timeline to contention may be shorter than expected.
Is a playoff berth worth it?
It’s complicated.
The postseason is still somewhat counterproductive to Washington’s roadmap, even with changes to the WNBA draft lottery system in 2015. Lottery odds weigh each team’s record over the past two years, but life in the lottery is still only conceded to the four teams who miss the playoffs in the most recent season.
If the Mystics make the playoffs, their pick will not be in the lottery, despite a poor record since 2023. They’re a young team, and the likelihood of advancing in the postseason is slim to none. Is a rematch with the indomitable New York Liberty worth forfeiting a chance at a top pick?
The Mystics can find solace in the fact that they own Atlanta’s 2025 draft pick. Washington and Atlanta can’t both make the playoffs, so the Mystics will assume a prized stake in the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes regardless of a potential playoff berth. However, if Chicago were to capture the final playoff spot, Washington would own two picks in the 2025 lottery, nearly doubling their odds to land Bueckers.
In the end, it’s all subjective. The Washington locker room is undoubtedly going to war with a postseason appearance in mind, and it feels wrong to root against their aspirations. Nonetheless, fans who prioritize a second shot at the top draft pick can’t be blamed for their vision. To each their own.
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